By appointing loyalists in government bodies and extending favours, Oli has built a support base among the elite. His critics allege he has thus systematically undermined independent institutions like the Election Commission, the Department of Money Laundering Investigation and the Commission for the Investigation of Abuse of Authority. But there is method in this madness, says a Nepal expert. Oli wants to ensure that, while no one touches him, he can go after other corrupt politicians, both inside and outside his party, making them fall into line. As in most developing countries, corruption is widespread in Nepal.

That he has failed to deliver on his election promises is apparent from media reports. The Covid-19 situation has only exacerbated the crisis. Hundreds of thousands of Nepalese working in India, Gulf and South-East Asian countries have returned home and are jobless. In order to distract attention from these problems, Oli has resorted to the oft-tried ploy of whipping up ultranationalist and anti-India sentiments. As traditionally friendly relations with India came under strain, he went out of his way to promote government-to-government as well as party-to-party relations with China and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Naturally, the bosses in Beijing were happy.

The pro-China tilt of the NCP, and Oli in particular, had made the Chinese, who were looking at expanding their Belt and Road Initiative, quite proactive. From Xi Jinping’s visit, followed by other high-power delegations, to investments in several infrastructure projects, the Chinese can be seen everywhere.

But internecine dissension in the NCP has been a headache for Oli’s Chinese mentors. Anti-Oli factions have been fiercely critical, even demanding the prime minister’s resignation, while for his part, Oli accused his opponents of being corrupt. It has been an unending war of nerves, with accusation and counter-accusation.Nepal is a clear example of how foreign interference and a corrupt, overambitious politician can bring disaster to a country

Since May last year, the charming Chinese Ambassador to Nepal Hou Yanqi has been working overtime, meeting leaders of different NCP factions in a bid to resolve their differences. However, her meetings with Dahal and Madhav Nepal did not cut much ice, thanks to Oli’s arrogance and obduracy.

Alarmed by the latest developments in Nepal, China rushed a four-member delegation, led by Vice Minister of the International Department of the CCP, Guo Yezhuo. Guo is said to be the one responsible for the unification of the two Communist parties in 2018. The high-powered delegation met Nepal’s president, Oli and other party leaders. They also met opposition Nepali Congress leaders, as there is much at stake for China in Nepal.

Civil society and opposition parties have taken strong exception to China’s meddling in Nepal’s internal affairs. Protesters in Kathmandu greeted the Chinese delegation with slogans like ‘Back off China’, ‘Return encroached Nepali land to Nepal’ and ‘Stop casting an evil eye on Sagarmatha [Mt Everest]’.

India, on the other hand, maintains a hands-off approach and described the recent developments as‘an internal matter for Nepal’. Nevertheless, they have a direct bearing on India’s security. Beijing views Nepal as a strategic asset, more so because it borders the unstable Tibet Autonomous Region. There have been reports of Chinese ‘creeping encroachment’ into Nepalese border villages. Sometime ago, villagers of Limi complained to officials about Chinese construction on the Nepali side of the border at Lapcha Pass. The Lapcha Pass is the only place in Nepal from where one can view Mt Kailash and Mansarovar Lake.

Officials found nine new permanent structures on what has been traditional pasture. With a border pillar missing, it was difficult to ascertain where the border starts. The Chinese insisted it was their territory.When the news spread and was picked up by Indian media, it became a big issue. Adopting an ostrich-like attitude, the Nepalese Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying ‘the structures were built on Chinese land’. The local official who reported the incident to higher-ups was reprimanded. Luckily for him, a Nepal Army team found the missing border pillar No. 11 buried under snow and rubble on a ridge at a height of above 5,000 metres, and the matter has, for the time being, been laid to rest.

In August, reports emerged of satellite images showing the Chinese military constructing a surface-to-air missile site and other infrastructure on the banks of the Mansarovar Lake in the India-Nepal-China tri-junction area, near the controversial Lipulekh pass. The number of PLA troops has considerably increased across the LAC at Lipulekh Pass, parts of North Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh, Indian army sources said.

India’s construction of a road to Lipulekh Passat 17,000 fthad led to a diplomatic row between India and Nepal.The Oli government seized the opportunity to further its anti-India agenda by releasing new maps of Nepal depicting areas of Kalapani, Lipulekh, and Limpiyadhura as its territory.The road – which makes it easier for pilgrims to reach Kailash-Mansarovar, a pilgrimage site in Tibet – connects the Lipulekh Pass at the India-China border, 17,000 ft above sea level, to Dharchula, a town in Uttarakahand’s Pithoragarh.

Meanwhile, Nepal’s Foreign Minister, Pradeep Kumar Gywali, is visiting New Delhi forthe much delayed sixth round of the India-Nepal Joint Commission meeting. Interestingly, Oli is sending his foreign minister at a juncture when he desperately needs support from all possible quarters. He seems to be playing the India and China cards so that he has the broadest possible backing of both powerful neighbours in his own factional struggle at home. How things unfold remains to be seen.